Alert #15 on Hurricane Melissa issued by The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, Tuesday, October 28th, 2025, at 12 NOON EDT.
… EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN JAMAICA…
…TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE ISLANDS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING…
…THE ISLANDS SET TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ARE: RAGGED ISLAND, LONG ISLAND, ACKLINS, CROOKED ISLAND, SAMANA CAY, RUM CAY, SAN SALVADOR, AND THE MAINLAND OF EXUMA…
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Central and Southeast Bahamas. This includes Exuma and its Cays, Ragged Island, Rum Cay, Long Island, San Salvador, Cat Island, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Mayaguana, Inagua, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that Hurricane conditions are expected in the mentioned islands within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the mentioned islands within 36 hours
At 11 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.9 degrees north and longitude 77.9 degrees west, or about 40 miles South-southeast of Negril Jamaica, 330 miles Southwest of Duncan Town, Ragged Island, 380 miles Southwest of Salina Point, Acklins, 345 miles South Southwest of Matthew Town, Inagua, 445 miles South Southwest of Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands, 440 miles South Southwest of Abraham’s Bay, Mayaguana, and 490 miles South of New Providence.
Hurricane Melissa is moving toward the North-Northeast near 9 miles per hour. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the Southeast or Central Bahamas later on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 miles per hour with higher gusts. Melissa is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the Southeast Bahamas.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Residents in the Central and Southeast Bahamas (especially those islands set to receive the greatest impact), as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, should rush to complete all preparations for possible Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions beginning early Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday. Residents in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas should closely monitor Alerts issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology and be ready to prepare for possible Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions in the next few days.
Potential Impacts:
Hurricane Melissa, should it continue to follow the forecast track, will bring prolonged periods of violent winds, heavy downpours, extensive flooding, and coastal inundation to the islands in the Central and Southeast Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, from Wednesday through Thursday. The islands set to receive the greatest impact are: Ragged Island, Long Island, Acklins, Crooked Island, Samana Cay, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and the mainland of Exuma. However, the magnitude of the impact depends on the intensity of Melissa as it moves through the Central and Southeast Bahamas.
Melissa is forecast to interact with major mountainous landmarks, such as those in Jamaica and Cuba or Hispaniola, which could potentially weaken the system slightly as it nears the Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall Amount:
A total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected over the Southeast Bahamas on Tuesday and into Wednesday, resulting in severe flooding in the islands. Expected rainfall totals for the Turks and Caicos Islands are approximately 2 to 4 inches
Storm Surge:
A storm surge of 5 to 8 feet above normally dry ground is possible in the Southeast Bahamas, and 2 to 4 feet in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.
The next Alert on Hurricane Melissa will be issued at 3 PM EDT.
Issued by: Mary Butler
