Alert #14 on Hurricane Melissa issued by The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, Tuesday, October 28th, 2025, at 9am EDT.
…EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA APPROACHING WESTERN JAMAICA…
…CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND TODAY…
…TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE ISLANDS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING…
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Central and Southeast Bahamas. This includes Exuma and its Cays, Ragged Island, Rum Cay, Long Island, San Salvador, Cat Island, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Mayaguana, Inagua, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that Hurricane conditions are expected in the mentioned islands within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the mentioned islands within 36 hours
A Hurricane Watch means that Hurricane conditions could be experienced within the mentioned islands within 48 hours.
At 8AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.5 degrees north and longitude 78.1 degrees west, or about 90 miles South-southeast of Negril Jamaica, 360 miles South-Southwest of Duncan Town, Ragged Island, 375 miles Southwest of Matthew Town, Inagua, 480 miles Southwest of Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands, 470 miles Southwest of Abraham’s Bay, Mayaguana and 520 miles South of New Providence.
Hurricane Melissa is moving toward the North-Northeast near 7 miles per hour. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica during the next several hours, move across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning and move across the Southeastern or Central Bahamas later on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 miles per hour with higher gusts. Melissa is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the Southeast Bahamas.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Residents in the Central and Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should rush to complete all preparation for Tropical Storm and possible Hurricane conditions beginning early Wednesday morning through Thursday. Residents in the Northern and Northwest Bahamas should closely monitor Alerts issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology and be ready to prepare for possible Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions in the next few days.
Potential Impacts:
Hurricane Melissa, should it continue to move along the forecast track, will bring prolonged periods of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal inundation to the islands in the Central and Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, beginning Tuesday through Thursday. However, the magnitude of potential impacts depends on the intensity of Melissa as it moves through the Central and Southeast Bahamas.
Melissa is forecast to interact with major mountainous landmarks, such as those in Jamaica and Cuba or Hispaniola, which could potentially weaken the system slightly as it nears the Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall Amount:
A total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected over the Southeast Bahamas on Tuesday and into Wednesday, resulting in severe flooding in the islands.
Storm Surge:
Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground is possible in the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.
The next Alert on Hurricane Melissa will be issued at 12PM EDT.
Issued by: Gregory D Thompson (COO)
Duty Forecaster
